Thirty-five years ago, the American diplomat and author Joseph Nye coined the term “soft power” to describe non-military methods of influencing nations. He wrote that "when one country gets other countries to want what it wants might be called co-optive or soft power in contrast with the hard or command power of ordering others to do what it wants."
Today, it appears that President Trump wants to replace soft power with deal power, or as he might write: DEAL POWER. Can Trump create a program — Deal Power — from the remnants of the US Agency for International Development that will allow him to make commercial deals across the globe to advance diplomacy, national security and the new American mercantilism? We are about to find out.
Today the decades-old American soft power program is in tatters. The Trump administration has eviscerated USAID, which runs humanitarian and development programs around the world, and now appears to be contemplating significant cuts and reorganisation at the State Department itself.
Can Trump create a program — Deal Power — from the remnants of the US Agency for International Development that will allow him to make commercial deals across the globe to advance diplomacy, national security and the new American mercantilism? We are about to find out.
Foreign aid specialists have been recalled from missions abroad and nearly all DC-based aid personnel have been laid off or put on administrative leave. Nearly all US foreign aid programs, except those classified as life-saving, have been put on hold or cancelled. A three-month review of all aid programs is set to finish on April 19.
The Trump administration is clearly not interested in supporting traditional economic programs, democracy-building institutions, or civil society organisations in the developing world. These programs take years to show results and are often not appreciated by the host country's government. USAID was set to spend $32 billion on such activities this year — where will that money go now?
Those resources will be funnelled into transactional deals with developing nations to advance American commercial and national security interests. During the campaign, Trump said on social media: “WE SHOULD NEVER GIVE MONEY ANYMORE WITHOUT THE HOPE OF A PAYBACK, OR WITHOUT ‘STRINGS’ ATTACHED.” Other key Republicans have echoed this sentiment.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is also the acting administrator of USAID, said during his confirmation hearing in January that he didn’t like that USAID didn’t “brag” enough to show other countries “what the United States is doing to help their societies.”
Rep. Brian Mast, chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and a noted Trump ally, opened a recent hearing on foreign assistance with this: “I would say that when done right, foreign aid can be one of the best tools. It can help strengthen our relationships with our allies that need a hand up and it can help countries realise that America is the best partner. But it is only true if we understand a couple of things: — what does America actually need from each country or region? — what does that country or region actually want from the United States of America?”
This emerging Deal Power concept is the basis of Trump’s offer of security guarantees (a form of foreign military aid) to President Zelensky in exchange for half of Ukraine’s mineral wealth. Even Vladimir Putin is attracted to Deal Power, according to the New York Times:
President Vladimir V. Putin on Monday said American companies could do lucrative business deals in Russia and even help mine rare earths in Russian-occupied Ukraine, further amplifying the Kremlin’s message to President Trump that there was money to be made from a better relationship with Moscow.
Deal Power covers not just foreign aid but also sanctions and tariffs and was the basis of Trump’s stunning interaction with Colombia in January. From a golf course in New Jersey, he threatened Colombia with visa bans for its senior government officials (many of whom have family in the United States) and massive tariffs if Colombia didn’t accept planes filled with Colombian deportees from the United States. Colombian President Gustavo Petro caved into Trump’s wishes in about an hour.
A revamped foreign assistance program will likely be built around the Deal Power concept. Trump and Rubio will look to use billions in foreign aid dollars to achieve policy goals around the world — help on immigration, counternarcotics and security cooperation from aid recipient nations. Foreign aid experts call the use of aid dollars to achieve foreign policy goals “instrumentalisation.” Instrumentalisation is the equivalent of a four-letter word for most American aid professionals, but that may have to change.