Just days before Americans head to the polls on November 5, speculation abounds as to whether the election result will ultimately be respected – or whether the country could be headed for a repeat of the violence and chaos of January 6, 2021. The stakes for US democracy have been hotly debated on the presidential campaign trail, as the American electorate grows increasingly polarised and calcified. Against this backdrop, in the United States Studies Centre’s Allies and partners poll 2024, 79% of Americans and 78% of Australians say they are concerned about the risks of political violence in the United States.

As part of the USSC Debate Papers series, the Centre invited former US Congresswoman Barbara Comstock, co-chair of the bipartisan National Council on Election Integrity, and Dr Alexander Cohen, Associate Professor of Political Science at Clarkson University, to discuss whether the United States is headed for a repeat of January 6, 2021.

The Debate Papers provides a platform for learned voices to argue issues affecting the United States and Australia. These counterpoints traverse topics such as economics, foreign policy and politics.

DownloadIs the United States headed for a second January 6?

Is the United States headed for a second January 6? Yes, absolutely.

Dr Alexander Cohen is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Clarkson University

If Donald Trump loses the US presidential election, Americans should brace themselves for a repeat of January 6, 2021. Or worse. A cocktail of political and social factors makes this very likely – and survey data suggests that it is frighteningly certain.

First of all, many Americans believe that Trump cannot possibly lose a free and fair election. These views are largely held by independents and Republicans. Trump himself has insisted that the 2024 election will be “rigged,” “stolen” or otherwise influenced over 500 separate times. It is important to understand that what many liberals dismiss as tantrums is actually effective communication: many Americans are persuaded by Trump. For example, despite extensive litigation and investigation into the 2020 election finding no evidence of mass fraud, a 2023 poll showed that almost a third of Americans believe that the 2020 election was not legitimate. That’s more people than in 2021, a testament to Trump’s persuasiveness – and the effectiveness of media surrogates like Newsmax and Fox News helping him sell this message of a fixed election. Mike Howell, director of the right-leaning Heritage Foundation’s Oversight Project, is not alone in openly proclaiming that there is “0% chance of a free and fair election.”

Some might argue: so what? Donald Trump’s petulant rhetoric is an effective political tool, but the republic survived the 2020 election and the turbulence that followed. But this argument fails to analyse the ever-amplifying normalisation of violence and demonisation of the ‘other’ becoming endemic to the American political system, which Trump and others have purposefully cultivated over the last four years.

Many of Trump’s followers were already angry, even before Trump’s political turn. The rise of automation in the declining US industrial base has left many people facing declining earnings, unemployment and flagging social status. The United States, as ever, has changed, and change always creates winners and losers. Many Americans who see ‘their America’ as forever gone have turned their anger outwards: towards shadowy global elites, the ‘deep state,’ immigrants, and – of course – liberals, their policies and their perceived indoctrination of America’s youth.

Trump capitalised on this anger to catapult himself into political power and has encouraged this anger through his rhetoric. For example, throughout his many criminal and legal troubles, Trump has painted himself as the victim of a Biden administration vengefully attempting to keep him from the White House (never mind that the Biden administration has no mechanism for control or influence over many of these cases). Trump and his most stalwart followers see themselves as victims of the same liberal conspiracy to change ‘their’ America. If Trump loses the election, this segment of the population may well be willing to resort to violence to break what they see as an illegitimate stranglehold on power. If January 6, 2021, isn’t evidence enough, we need only turn to public opinion data. According to an August ABC/Ipsos poll, 21% of Trump supporters are not prepared to accept the results of the 2024 election, while less than one in ten Harris supporters say the same. A March PBS/Marist poll found that 28% of Republicans believe “Americans may have to resort to violence in order to get the country back on track.” And a September PRRI poll found that 14% of Americans believe that “if Donald Trump is not confirmed as the winner of the 2024 election, he should declare the results invalid and do whatever it takes to assume his rightful place as president.”

These percentages may seem small, but keep in mind that they encompass millions of people who will never accept a Trump loss; openly accept political violence as a necessary tool to thwart the perceived liberal establishment; and support any extra-legal actions by Donald Trump to ensure victory.

Do I believe that the nation will descend into civil war if Kamala Harris wins? No. But I do believe that violence in statehouses, the capital, and communities is more likely now than in 2021 – when rioters broke into the seat of government and were openly chanting to hang the vice president.

To me, this is not an abstract political question. It is actually quite personal. From time to time, I am asked to participate in civil discourse by sharing my thoughts as a trained political scientist on political events, in venues such as these. At times, I have written things that, though factual, are perceived as critical to Donald Trump. I have been told, through anonymous emails, that I am “the reason political violence should occur,” that I “infest and indoctrinate,” and that I should “end up in a mass grave.”

This reminds me – and should remind others – that the statistics that I have cited here are not just statistics: they are people. And people are capable of terrible things. It happened once. There is no reason to believe that it will not happen again.

This reminds me – and should remind others – that the statistics that I have cited here are not just statistics: they are people. And people are capable of terrible things. It happened once. There is no reason to believe that it will not happen again.

2024 is not 2020 – new guardrails make a repeat of January 6 unlikely.

Barbara Comstock is a former US Congresswoman (R-VA) and Co-Chair of the bipartisan National Council on Election Integrity

In the closing weeks of his presidential campaign, Republican nominee Donald Trump is again insisting that the 2020 election was stolen and warning that a 2024 loss would be the same. His four years of election denialism have produced alarming results: 69% of voters in a recent poll say that they don’t think Trump will accept the election results if he loses, compared to 26% who say the same about Vice President Harris. Alarmingly, 76% of voters say they are concerned about violent attempts to overturn the results of the 2024 election. This general level of anxiety is heightened by drop boxes and post office boxes in swing House district areas being firebombed.

But the good news is that if Trump loses, 2024 is not 2020. And a repeat of January 6, 2021, is far more unlikely because of the significant guardrails that have been put in place since then.

First, it’s likely that Trump will pre-emptively claim victory on election night before the vote is finalised, just as he did in 2020. Much of his election denial rhetoric is geared toward getting his supporters to distrust a losing result. However, the House of Representatives may also turn over to Democratic control. Or at the least, Republicans would likely maintain only a very thin majority.

If the Democrats win a House majority, newly elected members would be sworn in three days before the electoral college ballots are officially counted on January 6. A loss of the Republican majority might make for less interest in helping Trump, especially amid potential infighting within the Republican caucus. With Democratic Speaker Hakeem Jeffries, Trump would face more obstacles and have fewer allies in the House to challenge the result.

On the other hand, if the Republicans retain the House by a narrow margin, and they face a defeated Trump who is unwilling to concede, House Republicans will have to decide whether they want to support disputing the electoral count – a challenge that would go nowhere in the Senate, even if Senate Republicans gain a small majority (as many expect them to do).

The likely Republican Senate majority could be as narrow as 51 (out of 100) and probably no more than 53 senators in all – including at least three Republican senators who have refused to support Trump for president.

In addition, a major difference from 2020 is that Trump will not hold the levers of government. Until January 20th, control will be in the hands of President Biden. Trump allies will not occupy key positions in the Justice Department or Homeland Security, and conspiracy theorists will not be roaming the halls of the White House.

And unlike Vice President Pence who left his intentions unclear up to January 6, Vice President Harris will have no hesitation in fulfilling her constitutional role to certify the election victory that makes her US president. She will also have the precedent of Vice President Pence ultimately performing his constitutional duty.

Moreover, the new Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022 was passed in large part to prevent any future shenanigans like the events of January 6, 2021. The new law requires support from one-fifth of each chamber (87 House members and 20 Senators) to challenge a state’s electors – rather than just a single member in each (which was all that was required in 2020). While the Trump Freedom Caucus may still include as many as 87 House members, a new Republican majority in the Senate is unlikely to have the appetite for such an agenda. (Notably, Republican Senator Susan Collins, a frequent Trump opponent, was a main author of the Electoral Count Reform Act).

Similar guardrails are in place to deter any attempts to gather ‘fake electors’ slates in swing states or hold up votes in any county or local area. The indictments of several individuals who participated in such actions in 2020 – coupled with what will probably be empty financial coffers at the RNC – will likely discourage anyone from pursuing this dubious procedure again. In 2022, anti-Trump Republicans and Democrats joined together to elect state election officials in each swing state who would be committed to the ministerial nature of their jobs and the deadlines set by federal law to certify the elections by December 11. There are concerns that in some swing states, counties could hold out on certifying the election results, but legal actions would be taken swiftly, and such attempts have a poor legal track record.

As for the threats of violence, they are real and disgraceful, but we have navigated several Trump trials already without violence, likely due to the legacy of the arrest and conviction of nearly a thousand of those who attacked the Capitol on January 6. The Biden administration and Washington Capitol Police will also be prepared for any signs of unrest and many outside nonpartisan groups are prepared to push back on behalf of the Constitution and the rule of law to call out any calls for unrest. Furthermore, plans have already been made to have the Capitol in a near-fortress situation on January 6, 2025.

Finally, even when the challenge process only required one House member and one Senate member, these efforts never succeeded. If Donald Trump doesn’t win by the ballot box and the votes of the American people, there will not be a legal path or the patience for his ‘sore loser’ strategy to drag out a repeat of this long national nightmare

If we are to face the prospect of a Trump administration again, it will have to be because the voters choose it outright. And if such is the case, American democracy will face unprecedented challenges due to the divisive nature of any such win. Many have been exhausted by the challenges to date, but they will rise to the cause again if needed to make sure our democracy survives again.

Many have been exhausted by the challenges to date, but they will rise to the cause again if needed to make sure our democracy survives again.