President Trump has signed more than 50 executive orders in his first few weeks in office. Many of his decisions have affected areas ranging from trade to energy, but technology policy is particularly relevant to Australia.
The Biden Administration’s old Executive Order on AI was scrapped in favour of a new AI Action Plan within 180 days to accelerate American AI development. At the same time, the US technology sector has seen a surge in investment, exemplified by OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle’s planned $500-billion Stargate Project to build computing infrastructure in the United States. On the personnel side, Trump has moved to confirm tech policy expert Michael Kratsios as the head of the Office of Science and Technology Policy.
It is here where Australian firms have the potential to benefit.
Impacts on Australian AI and critical minerals industry
Trump’s efforts to accelerate the US AI industry, particularly in the realm of computing resources, could have significant implications for Australia’s critical minerals sector. One of Trump’s key goals is to establish the US as a global AI leader, which requires a rapid acceleration in the building of data centres and computing infrastructure. However, these data centres need advanced AI chips, which increases demand for key raw materials.
Australia, which possesses some of the world’s largest deposits of critical minerals such as cobalt and tungsten, stands to benefit from this demand surge. Increased AI chip production in the US could drive up Australian mineral exports, boosting the industry and offering Canberra increased geopolitical leverage in its dealings with Washington.
Increased AI chip production in the US could drive up Australian mineral exports, boosting the industry and offering Canberra increased geopolitical leverage in its dealings with Washington.
Further, critical minerals could serve as a key bargaining chip in negotiations, such as efforts to secure exemptions from American tariffs. However, this potential advantage is not guaranteed, particularly if the Trump administration prioritises domestic or alternative sources for these minerals.
National security and strengthening US-Australia ties
The Trump administration’s technology policies may also influence Australian national security policy. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s attendance at Trump’s inauguration and high-profile meetings with US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, signal a continued strengthening of US-Australia relations.
One key aspect of this relationship is AUKUS, the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the UK, and the US. AUKUS encompasses both nuclear submarine cooperation and advanced technology sharing. Recent endorsements from Secretary of State Rubio and Defense secretary Pete Hegseth confirm the administration’s commitment to the deal.
This backing suggests that the US not only supports Australia’s acquisition of nuclear submarines but is also invested in AUKUS’ Pillar 2 initiatives, which include AI, quantum computing, and electronic warfare technology. If these collaborations proceed, Australia could see an increase in funding for technological innovation in the likes of the AUKUS Innovation Challenge, which would strengthen its defence capabilities and deepen ties with Washington.
The Quad and broader regional implications
Another potential impact area, though not exclusively technology-focused, is the Quad — the informal strategic partnership between the United States, India, Japan, and Australia. Trump has signalled strong support for the Quad, as evidenced by the presence of all four Quad foreign ministers at his inauguration and their early meetings with the new secretary of state.
The Quad has previously engaged in multiple technology-focused initiatives, including cooperation on 5G networks, cybersecurity partnerships, and technical standards development. With Trump’s continued backing, these efforts could expand to enhance the Quad’s technological collaboration and bolster its position as a counterweight to China’s growing influence.
Uncertainties and future considerations
As with the first Trump administration, unpredictability remains a constant factor. The personal relationship between Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and President Trump could play a crucial role in shaping future US-Australia technology ties. Additionally, unforeseen geopolitical or economic events could shift priorities or introduce unintended consequences, such as the downstream effects of Trump’s tariff policies on Australian firms.
Overall, Trump’s initial technology policy decisions present a mixed picture for Australia. While they highlight opportunities for increased demand in Australian critical minerals and deeper collaboration on national security technology, the long-term sustainability of these initiatives remains uncertain. Only time will tell how these efforts will unfold.