China is on the verge of overtaking India as the dominant naval power in the Indian Ocean and could exercise sea denial there in the coming years, warns a new report by the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.

Engaging with reality in the Indian Ocean by USSC guest contributor Dr Arzan Tarapore argues that India, Australia and the United States should deepen naval cooperation in anti-submarine warfare and undersea warfare to offset China’s growing submarine capability in the Indian Ocean as it rapidly expands its navy and port infrastructure there.

“The Indian Ocean is one of the busiest and most strategically important trade corridors in the world.” said the USSC’s Director of Foreign Policy and Defence Professor Peter Dean. “This timely report outlines steps that India, Australia and the United States can take to offset China’s growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean in order to ensure an ongoing strategic balance in the region and free and open access to this vital sea line of communication.”

India still has the largest navy in the Indian Ocean, but the report details how it has not kept pace with naval investments since 2020, due to shifting strategic priorities. It notes that at the same time China is building the world’s largest navy and has signaled its intent to sustain a military presence in the Indian Ocean. Sea denial would give it the power to prevent the passage of other vessels.

While India’s role as a security partner to the United States and Australia is still new and military cooperation to date episodic, the report suggests ways to make it more concrete.

“The USSC is committed to robust analysis of geopolitical shifts across the Indian Ocean Rim to ensure the preservation of Australia’s strategic interests in this vital region,” said Professor Dean.

Dr Arzan Tarapore is a Research Scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University.

Recommendations

  • Routine sharing of undersea surveillance data;
  • Coordination of naval operations to expand surveillance of Chinese submarines, with a hypothetical ‘Combined Anti-Submarine Warfare Operations Centre’ serving as a clearing house for coordination;
  • Co-development of affordable new technologies in the areas of unmanned undersea vehicles, sensors, and artificial intelligence algorithms to process collected data.

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