While Japan and South Korea have long relied upon the protection of US extended nuclear deterrence, a new report from the United States Studies Centre (USSC) at the University of Sydney warns that Australia ought to pay closer attention to how nuclear dynamics in Northeast Asia evolve in the coming years amid a deteriorating security environment.

Though the current nuclear order in Northeast Asia characterised by US extended nuclear deterrence is likely to endure for the foreseeable future, Australia and the emerging nuclear order in Northeast Asia argues that Australia must prepare for alternative strategic futures characterised by more ‘nuclear sharing,’ whereby Japan or South Korea host US forward-deployed nuclear weapons to bolster deterrence against China and North Korea; or ‘nuclear proliferation’ whereby Japan and South Korea pursue sovereign nuclear weapons capabilities.

The report’s author, USSC Research Fellow Chris Watterson, argues that both of these strategic futures would have significant implications for Australia, with nuclear sharing of particular interest given that it would lower the threshold of a regional nuclear exchange. Accordingly, Australia needs to be investing now in defensive options for a regional nuclear conflict, including bolstering its long-range strike capabilities and national missile defence.

“The continued nuclear build up and provocations of both China and North Korea have caused a shift in public opinion in both Japan and South Korea around the utility of nuclear sharing with the United States, and even the idea of developing indigenous deterrents, ” said USSC CEO Dr Michael Green.

“These developments would have significant consequences for Australia, given its close relationships with Japan, South Korea and the United States alike. This report broadens the conversation that Australian policy makers need to be having on preparing for the potential of a new nuclear order in the region.”

Australia and the emerging nuclear order in Northeast Asia is the last in the USSC’s research series, Indo-Pacific strategic futures: Multipolarity, Alignment Dynamics and collective defence.

Key findings

  • The growing threat profiles of China and North Korea coupled with questions around the durability of US extended deterrence are making Japanese and South Korean policymakers increasingly uneasy about their strategic circumstances.
  • This raises the prospect that regional nuclear dynamics may shift in response to wider shifts in the Indo-Pacific power balance.
  • It’s in that context that Australia must prepare for a range of potential nuclear futures in the region, including 'nuclear horse-trading,' 'nuclear sharing,' and 'nuclear proliferation.'
  • ‘Nuclear horse-trading’, the current regional nuclear order, involves the US-Japan and US-South Korea dyads competitively negotiating adjustments to US extended deterrence that, from the US perspective, offset Japanese and South Korean demands for nuclear weapons acquisition and, from the Japanese and South Korean perspectives, are sufficient to deter emerging threats from China and North Korea.
  • ‘Nuclear sharing’ would involve Japan or South Korea hosting US forward-deployed nuclear weapons to bolster deterrence against China and North Korea.
  • ‘Nuclear proliferation’ would involve Japan and South Korea pursuing sovereign nuclear weapons capabilities.
  • To offset the growing risks of regional nuclear escalation, Australia must bolster its long-range strike and national missile defence capabilities.

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