USSC experts are featured in an article in The Sydney Morning Herald that asks, what would a re-elected Trump do with one of his successor Joe Biden’s major strategic initiatives, the AUKUS defence pact with Australia and the United Kingdom?
Dr Michael Green tells The Sydney Morning Herald that AUKUS is likely to survive a transition to Trump because the Pentagon and State Department are likely to be packed with “Asia-firsters.” Yet, he still warns that "the wrong comment by the wrong politician in Australia about Donald Trump, and he might get his back up, and then you’re spending a lot of time trying to save AUKUS.”
Professor Dean says that AUKUS "ticks all of Trump's boxes." In his view, the biggest risk Trump would pose to AUKUS is if he seeks to renegotiate the submarine transfer deal. “If Trump gets obsessed with pillar one, it would slow pillar two down, potentially to a crawl. That’s the real worry over the short term.”
USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe is quoted from his book Trump's Australia, which states that “Trump would keep AUKUS, but he would massage it to suit his interests and priorities." Wolpe writes, “Trump will be looking for commercial advantage for the United States as the agreement is implemented — especially with respect to the contracts and delivery associated with the submarines. The transaction costs could be significant.”
