In our living memory, since the murder of John F. Kennedy in Dallas on November 22, 1963, political assassinations in the United States are always a shock – but unfortunately not a surprise. In 1968, Martin Luther King, the most compelling and consequential civil rights leader, and Robert Kennedy, JFK’s brother and presidential aspirant, were slain within three months of each other. In 1975, President Gerald Ford was attacked twice within three weeks by shooters in California. Ronald Reagan was severely wounded just three months after assuming the presidency in 1981.

In these recurring nightmares, America is haunted by bullets cutting down leaders who move tens of millions of voters with their visions and their courage. Extremists seeking the presidency are victims as well. George Wallace, the segregationist governor of Georgia who famously stood in the school house door to stop two Black students from registering at university, was permanently paralyzed when shot during his run for the presidency in 1972.

Fear is greatest when passions that tear at the fabric of America run high. It was a miracle that Barack Obama, the first Black president, was never fired upon throughout his eight years in office notwithstanding all the passions that were spawned. Indeed, it was former president Donald Trump, in Obama’s 2012 campaign for a second term, who led the ‘birther movement’ questioning Obama’s US citizenship and legitimacy to serve as president.

The American fabric is deeply torn. The November presidential election is seen as the most important since the Civil War. After the January 6 violent insurrection against the Capitol, where blood was spilled to try to overturn the 2020 presidential election, Trump has warned there could well be violence if he loses this election.

For months, Trump’s speeches at his rallies have carried these words:

“In the end, they’re not coming after me. They’re coming after you.” And: “Either we have a Deep State, or we have a Democracy … Either the Deep State destroys America, or we destroy the Deep State.”

And: “This is the final battle … They want to silence me because I will never let them silence you. And in the end, they are not after me. They’re after you and I just happen to be standing in the way.”

The images of a wounded and bloodied Trump, his fist in the air, instructing all his supporters to “Fight! Fight! Fight!” are already iconic.

The man just chosen by Trump to be his vice president, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, who has become Trump’s staunchest intellectual and ideological champion in the Senate, did not hesitate in his judgment shortly after the shooting, writing on X:

“The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.”

In the hours after the shooting it was clear that Trump would ascend in stature and strength. Historian Douglas Brinkley said: “There’s something in the American spirit that likes seeing fortitude and courage under pressure and the fact that Trump held his fist up high will become a new symbol. By surviving an attempted assassination, you become a martyr, because you get a groundswell of public sympathy.”

Trump is today a living martyr for those now bound to his movement.

As the Republicans meet this week in Milwaukee to formally coronate Trump’s third successive run for the presidency, his supporters’ enthusiasm to vote for him will be even stronger.

As Republican congressman Tim Burchett of Tennessee said: “This will energize the base more than anything. And he, you know — with his fist in the air and he didn’t want to leave. And he’s yelling, fight, fight, fight. That’ll be the slogan.”

The shooting places an extra premium on Trump’s choice of JD Vance to serve as his vice president. Over the coming days, as his background is scoured by the media and others, Vance must be credibly seen as capable of discharging the duties of the presidency in a heartbeat or the nano second of a bullet. Vance is just 39 years old and has been in the Senate for less than two years. Vance will have to show that he has the right stuff.

The contrast with President Joe Biden and the Democrats will be even starker. At this moment, the Trump Republican party is stronger than ever. The Democrats are still in angst, more than two weeks after President Biden’s disastrous debate performance with Trump, over whether he can defeat Trump in November.

President Biden absolutely believes he can beat Trump and that he can do so more comprehensively than any other Democrat.

But the president, already seen as too old, cannot – after this vicious physical assault – match the public’s perceptions of Trump’s embedded physical strength.

In this moment on national trauma, Biden’s initial words were right but they were not crisply delivered:

“But the bottom line is that the ra … the Trump rally was a rally that he should have been able to con … be conducted peacefully without any problem. But the idea — the idea that there’s political violence or violence in America like this is just unheard of. It was just not appropriate. And we — everybody — everybody must condemn it. Everybody. I’ll keep you informed. And if I am able to speak to the — to Donald, I’ll — I’ll let you know that as well.”

Before the horror of this weekend, and the aftermath that has made Trump even stronger, Democrats across the country were already worried about the prospects that President Biden will be defeated. Even before the shooting, hard-headed political experts have concluded that President Biden does not have a viable path to victory. The president is weaker in more battleground swing states. Not only is the presidency on the brink, but the House and Senate could go Republican as well.

Trump survived. He may well prevail.