Three weeks out from the US election, the polling preferences in the key swing states that will decide the presidency are stuck, all within the margin of error. But a clear trend is now evident: Trump is consolidating. He looks like he believes he is winning. And a third potential assassination attempt in California will further buttress his support at this critical moment.
Harris is stalled. As CNN’s David Axelrod said, “Now the race has plateaued.” Harris is not going backwards, but she has not opened a clear and convincing lead that would herald victory on November 5. At this point in the 2016 and 2020 campaigns, Harris is on par with where Hillary Clinton was in her race, but is two points behind Biden’s ultimately decisive margin.
The shocker is that Trump has reached a zenith when he is at his very worst on the campaign trail – more unhinged, extreme and authoritarian than ever. Trump’s base is fully amped up even more after his return rally to the site where an assassin’s bullet grazed him two months ago. Trump said: “Those who wanted to stop us … have slandered me, impeached me, indicted me, tried to throw me off the ballot, and who knows, maybe even tried to kill me.”
On his hottest hot-button issue, immigration, Trump is scalding: “How about allowing people to come to an open border, 13,000 of which were murderers, many of them murdered far more than one person, and they’re now happily living in the United States … I believe this, it’s in their genes. And we’ve got a lot of bad genes in our country right now.”
Trump needs to carry Michigan, but insults Detroit. “Our whole country will end up being like Detroit if she’s [Harris is] your president. You’re going to have a mess on your hands.” That became an instant Harris ad. And more: “International corporations were permitted to come in and rape the nation. That’s right, I used the word. They raped our country.” He will target them as president.
Trump attacked CBS for its 60 Minutes interview with Kamala Harris. “TAKE AWAY THE CBS LICENSE” – Trump posted. Make no mistake, the former president wants to become president so that he can throw his media enemies off the air.
It is not that Trump’s vote is growing. But right now, Harris’ vote is not increasing to give her a clear lead in the states she needs. Trump is losing with women voters and is going all out to win over men. Harris is winning with women but lagging with Black voters, especially Black men.
Barack Obama called them out in Pittsburgh. “You’re coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses … I’m speaking to men directly … that you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president.” To campaign staff, Obama said, “We have not yet seen the same kinds of energy and turnout in all quarters of our neighbourhoods and communities as we saw when I was running,” and that Trump has “consistently shown disregard, not just for our communities but for you as a person. And you’re thinking about sitting out?”
Overall, Harris leads Trump with Black voters by 63 points, 78 per cent to 15 per cent. But in 2020, Biden had a 77-point margin with Black voters.
Harris has weaker support with Hispanic voters than Biden did. Harris is leading Trump 56 per cent to 37 per cent with Hispanic voters. Biden had a 36-point lead with them in 2020.
The war in Gaza and Lebanon leaves Arab American and Muslim American communities in Michigan deeply angry. Harris is only tied with Trump in neighbouring Wisconsin. If Harris is beaten in those two states, she may well lose the election.
But underneath the daily polls, the Harris campaign has a silent running stealth mode of operation. Harris has raised a record-shattering $US1 billion in just three months. The campaign has more money on hand than Trump, and is financing a ground game focused on turnout that Trump cannot match and an advertising campaign that is outpacing Trump.
Harris has an army of presidents – Obama, Bill Clinton, and Biden – on the field. The Democratic governors of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are taking a bus trip to shore up the “blue wall” industrial Midwest states.
In her media choices, from Howard Stern to the Call Her Daddy and Charlamagne Tha God podcasts, Harris is doubling down on reaching bros and younger voters. Trump doubles down on his Fox-aligned outlets.
Democrats know a freak-out when they feel it. All year, when the polls came out showing Biden without a path to victory over Trump, despondence set in. Biden’s catastrophic debate with Trump triggered another collective seizure, and Biden retired from the race. Now, three weeks before the election, tremors are being felt.
Trump is the Titanic. Harris is the iceberg. Will the ship go down?
