The issues driving midterm voters

Donald Trump, healthcare and immigration are the most important issues for Americans going into the November midterm elections according to new polling. A survey of 1,218 respondents fielded in the United States in early October 2018 by YouGov, on behalf of the United States Studies Centre, analysed the key issues Americans say are influencing their votes.

“Democrats and Republicans differ markedly in what is important to them. Democrats nominate healthcare, Republicans emphasise immigration,” United States Studies Centre CEO Professor Simon Jackman said.

Climate change was the issue that saw the greatest difference between Democrats and Republicans, with 78 per cent of Democratic voters rating it as an issue of importance, as opposed to just 16 per cent of Republican voters

How important are each of these issues to deciding how you will vote in the coming midterm elections?

Source: USSC

This survey asked respondents how they intended to vote at the 2018 House of Representatives election and to rate the role of 11 different issues in deciding their vote, from ‘extremely important’ to ‘not at all important’.

“Democrats were more likely to say climate change, race relations and the cost of healthcare are important, while Republicans nominate immigration and crime," Professor Jackman said.

Beyond the differences between Democrats and Republicans, the USSC-YouGov poll also highlighted important differences in the political priorities of men and women, and voters with different racial and ethnic identities.

“Health, race relations, guns, climate change and crime were more important for women, while trade was more important for men,” he said.

“Voters identifying as white were more likely to say President Trump’s leadership and immigration were important for their vote, while minorities saw crime, race relations and climate change as most significant.”

Vote intention at the midterm elections

Vote intention for the House of Representatives at the 2018 midterm elections:

Forty per cent of respondents said they intended to vote for a Democratic House of Representatives candidate, 35 per cent intended to vote Republican, while 16 per cent said they were unsure and 8 per cent did not intend to vote.

Respondents reporting that they are “not sure” about their vote choice or who planned to vote for a candidate not from a major party were generally less likely to rate the nominated issues as important. However, like the Democrats, they were more likely to see healthcare as an important issue.

Salience of issues by vote intention

How important are each of these issues to deciding how you will vote in the coming midterm elections?

Salience of issues by gender

How important are each of these issues to deciding how you will vote in the coming midterm elections?

Salience of issues by race

How important are each of these issues to deciding how you will vote in the coming midterm elections?

About the data

Responses were weighted by age, gender, race, education, region, voter registration, and vote choice in the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections to ensure samples representative of the American population.

The maximum margin of error is approximately ± 3 percentage points for results reported for the full sample surveyed. It is larger for sub-groups of the full samples.

Background to the USSC-YouGov poll

In September 2017, the United States Studies Centre announced that it had partnered with global survey company YouGov, which now provides the Centre with exclusive, monthly polling data from the United States and Australia; tracking perceptions of political leadership in both countries, and unique, targeted insights on a diverse range of topics.

CEO of the United States Studies Centre Professor Simon Jackman, a leader in public opinion research, has previously worked as one of the principal investigators of the American National Election Studies and partnered with media outlets including the Guardian Australia and the Huffington Post on pre-election polling. He said the results provided by YouGov as part of the new partnership will allow the Centre to analyse and publish unprecedented comparative data.

“The United States Studies Centre has taken a keen interest in the attitudes and opinions of people in our region, with research like our surveys into America’s role in the Indo-Pacific. This exciting new partnership with YouGov gives us the opportunity to broaden that focus to public opinion in the United States and then contrast that with the views of people in our own backyard,” Jackman said. “The Centre has a mandate to deepen Australia’s understanding of America. This ongoing commitment to charting public perceptions in both countries is an ideal way for Australians to gain perspective on the United States.”

YouGov is a market research and opinion polling company headquartered in the United Kingdom, with operations in Europe, North America, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific.