Australia’s plan to acquire a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs) at the steep cost of $368 billion has triggered concerns that the protracted procurement could compromise the budget and posture of the Australian Defence Force (ADF).

In the latest instalment of its Debate Paper series, Does AUKUS Pillar I provide capability ‘bang for buck?, the United States Studies Centre (USSC) at the University of Sydney invited two leading defence experts to assess whether a fleet of AUKUS submarines offer the ADF value for money and if cheaper alternatives may have been overlooked.

"Discussing the logic of and opportunity cost of AUKUS for Australian defence policy is essential for our national security," said USSC Director of Foreign Policy and Defence Professor Peter Dean. "For AUKUS to succeed it's important that the public understands the reason for its significant price tag."

Peter Jennings AO PSM is a Director of Strategic Analysis Australia, former Executive Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and former Deputy Secretary for Strategy in the Department of Defence. He argues that the cost of the SSNs is ambiguous and threatens to weaken the ADF. ‘Plan B’ alternatives – like acquiring B-21 stealth long-range strike bombers – could strengthen the ADF much faster, well before the delivery of the SSNs.

Jennifer Parker is an Expert Associate at Australian National University’s National Security College, Adjunct Fellow at the University of New South Wales and the Nancy Bentley Associate Fellow in Indo-Pacific Maritime Affairs at the Council on Geostrategy. She argues that $368 billion is a significant overestimate which needs to be put into perspective against expected increases in the defence budget. Though there are cheaper options to SSNs, none would provide the capability or deterrence critical to Australia’s maritime security.

“The USSC is proud to encourage a vibrant and evidence-based debate on this critical topic,” said Professor Dean.

The Debate Papers: Does AUKUS Pillar I provide capability ‘bang for buck? is the 14th instalment of The Debate Papers.

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