While Australians harbour lingering concerns about a second Trump presidency, they are growing more confident in the strength of the alliance regardless of the election outcome a new polling report from the United States Studies Centre (USSC) at the University of Sydney shows.

The Allies and partners poll 2024 canvassed public attitudes in Australia, Japan and the United States around the role of the United States in the region, AUKUS, preferred courses of action in a Taiwan contingency and the prospect of a second Trump term.

There is still concern about a second Trump presidency with a large number of Australian (47%) and Japanese respondents (41%) saying it would be bad for their country. However, if Donald Trump is elected, only 26% of Australians now believe Australia should withdraw from the US-Australia alliance, compared to 37% in 2023.

“We saw an 11-point drop in the number of Australians who said Australia should withdraw from the US-Australia alliance if Trump wins a second term," said USSC CEO Dr Michael Green. “Across Australia, Japan and the United States there is hearty support for US-Australia and US-Japan alliances, which is underpinned by a strong alignment on key international issues."

The polling data showed:

  • Australians were twice as likely than Japanese or US respondents to say that the US handling of China is too aggressive.
  • Australians also demonstrated decreasing willingness to help the United States in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, with 32% objecting to sending Australian military forces com­pared to 22% in 2023.
  • On AUKUS, Australian, American and Japanese respondents are largely unsure if AUKUS would survive a second Trump presidency.

“The USSC is committed to a robust and nuanced debate around the role of the US role in the region and is proud to present this latest polling report,” said Dr Green.

The Allies and partners poll 2024: Australia, the United States and Japan converge on alliances and China despite US election uncertainties was written by USSC Director of Research Jared Mondschein and Research Associates Ava Kalinauskas and Samuel Garrett.

Key findings

  • Australian and Japanese respondents increasingly think their US alliances should continue if Trump is re-elected, despite lingering concerns about a potential Trump victory
  • All 3 countries continue to be aligned on the ‘China challenge’ and support alliances with the United States, but Australians are more likely to say that US handling of China is too aggressive
  • All 3 countries continue to prefer non-military responses to a Taiwan contingency, but just one in 5 Americans think that the Asia-Pacific should be the US Government’s top regional priority
  • Support for AUKUS continues to outweigh opposition — but most are unsure about its future if Trump is re-elected
  • All 3 publics support more government intervention in manufacturing and new technologies like AI
  • All 3 publics view democracy as important at home and abroad, though Americans — and to a lesser extent, their allies — are concerned about the state of US democracy

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