US Elections

But do the presidential hopefuls have it wrong? From either the independence or security perspective, it is substantially underappreciated how much America’s energy position has recently strengthened from discoveries both at home and in the Western Hemisphere.

Natural gas is a key source of energy for electricity generation. Until recently, America’s reserves of conventional natural gas were falling and large scale imports of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) from countries like Qatar were universally anticipated.

Technical innovation and old fashioned persistence by explorers in Texas unleashed an enormous new supply of gas from shale rock right across America. The technique, known as hydraulic fracturing, involves drilling a borehole and injecting water, chemicals, and sand at high pressures to fracture the rock and liberate the oil or gas. It is environmentally controversial. Nonetheless, from its origins in the Barnett shale region near Dallas, Texas, the boom has spread across the country to the now famous Marcellus structure under western New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

As recently as ten years ago, shale gas contributed around 1 per cent of America’s gas supplies. Today it is 25 per cent of gas supply and could reach 50 per cent in the coming decades. The estimated 3000 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves in America could supply current levels of consumption for more than 100 years. 

Oil is the predominant source of energy for transportation. New technologies have made as much as 11 billion barrels of oil recoverable in the Bakken formation under North Dakota and Montana, creating old fashioned boom towns and reducing America’s import needs in the future.

Elsewhere in the Western Hemisphere, discoveries and rising production promise to substantially lessen dependence on West African and Persian Gulf suppliers. Canada, already the top petroleum exporter to America, expects a doubling of tar sands production to 3 million barrels per day by 2020, with a controversial 1 711 mile pipeline proposed to carry the oil to Oklahoma and the Gulf Coast.

Brazil’s astounding offshore fields are likely to reach production levels in line with Iran — 5.5 million barrels per day — by 2020. Columbia’s production is rising, and Argentina recently made its biggest oil discovery since the 1980s.

The consequences of these technologies and discoveries are not only improved energy security, but when considered in combination with the turmoil of the Arab Spring, may lead to a reordering of geopolitics. In a recent article in Foreign Affairs magazine, Dr Amy Myers Jaffe contends that it is already taking place. In addition to the discussion above, the potential for US companies to export the new horizontal drilling and fracturing technologies to Europe and China, potentially reducing their demand for Russian and Persian Gulf energy supplies, could have an enormous impact. As Myers Jaffe says, “Watch this space: America may be back in the energy leadership saddle again.”

Cross posted at American Review.

Hide

American Progress, by John Gast

Vasquez explained how the image of Latinas had morphed from the hypersexualised exotic woman — Jennifer Lopez, Shakira — and the devoted Latina mother into the hyperfertile producer of an invasion force of (brown) anchor babies, threatening the English language and Anglo-American norms.

He showed a short clip from August 2010 of Texas lawmaker Debbie Riddle, who claimed that irregular immigration and so-called "anchor babies" were in fact part of a long term terrorist plot. It shows how quickly being "illegal" can be conflated with "terrorist."

Moreover, that was the message of Vasquez’s presentation: Don’t be passive to stereotypes — even if they appear benign or even positive. In times of stress, they can quickly become toxic.

Vasquez discussed how impossible progress was at this time, as signified by the failure of Congress to pass the DREAM Act. This bill was meant to create a pathway to citizenship for people who had been brought to America as young children by their parents as irregular migrants. These children grew up as Americans, went to American schools and only perhaps as young adults found out that they are not American citizens. President Barack Obama has recently reversed his policy of “enforcement” and accelerated deportations, aimed at winning Republican support for this bill. It failed to pass and is not likely to be reattempted.

It was clear from Manuel Vasquez’s presentation that in dealing with this climate of toxicity, plus the pain of the depressed economy, it is a very tough time for the Latino community in America.

Hide

One criticism of President Obama’s economic record hits the bullseye: the stimulus was too small and was poorly executed by Congress. At a time when America’s public infrastructure (airports, schools and collapsing bridges) is crumbling and Treasury can borrow at rates close to zero, the political leadership in Washington ought to have borrowed and made investments that could accrue substantial economic benefits over time. Economist Joseph Stiglitz made this point on Tuesday in the Financial Times, but laments that “the politics, however, are elsewhere”. President Obama has lost the initiative to the Tea Party and their anti-deficit fetish.

I agree with Garrett when he goes on to suggest that after the Tea Party has mauled the President sufficiently, moderate Republican Presidential candidates like Mitt Romney, or possibly Jon Huntsman, will emerge, claiming the wherewithal to lead the country back. The axiom is “Democrats fall in love, but Republicans fall in line,” and Romney will most likely gain the nomination despite misgivings over his religion and gubernatorial record.

Mitt Romney has a very impressive commercial and managerial record, and since voters’ desire for presidential economic leadership is not going away, in this respect Romney may truly be “The One we have been waiting for.”

Hide