US Elections

Romney wins Florida

By Luke Freedman in Sydney, Australia

1 February 2012

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Within minutes of the polls closing, all of the major networks and news organisations declared Romney the winner of the Florida primary. With the victory, Romney collects all 50 of the Florida delegates bringing his total delegate count to 84. As I argued the other day, the win leaves Romney in an excellent position going forward. Romney is now the only candidate to have won two states, and with substantial advantages in fundraising and organisation, he has clearly reclaimed the title of frontrunner.

This is a vey disappointing result for the Gingrich campaign. Evidence shows that the party elite has incredible sway in deciding the nominee, and thus Gingrich faces an enormous obstacle in that Romney is the clear favourite of the Republican establishment. Given these obstacles, Gingrich has always had a very small margin for error. Florida was a key state for him, and this loss makes an already difficult path to the nomination even more improbable.

Still, don’t expect the other candidates to drop out anytime soon. A candidate needs 1,144 delegates to clinch the Republican nomination, so Romney still has a long way to go (Gingrich has 27 delegates, Paul has 10 and Santorum has 8). The campaign now hits a bit of a lull for the next month as there are only a few primaries, all in states in which the demographics favour Romney. The next big test will come on Super Tuesday on March 6th, when 11 states hold primaries or caucuses. Several of these are Southern states in which Gingrich figures to do well. Super Tuesday is likely Gingrich’s last and best opportunity to regain momentum.

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