US Elections

Is Rick Perry the answer?

By Jonathan Bradley in Newcastle, Australia

10 August 2011

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For an American Review column earlier this month, John Barron described the appeal of Texas Governor Rick Perry as a presidential candidate:

[A Perry presidency] is the dream of tens of thousands of Republicans who are less than fully satisfied with the current crop of Presidential candidates, led by Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. After months scouting around for a more conservative “anti-Romney” among declared candidates, and twisting the unwilling arms of sideline-sitters like Mitch Daniels of Indiana and Chris Christie of New Jersey, they finally think they have their man.

Perry has all but declared his entry in the race, and Barron's column is a good look at why Republicans are excited about him. And certainly he is a serious contender for the nomination — and the presidency. But I would caution conservatives against getting overly enthused about Perry's potential until we see him in campaign mode.

Perry is getting attention because he is a plausible nominee: He has solid experience, is charismatic, and appeals to conservatives without instantly alienating moderates in the way Sarah Palin or Michele Bachmann do. But that just means Perry's a serious candidate, not an inevitable one. Expectations will be high over the coming weeks as he launches his campaign, and though Perry may be the answer to Republican prayers (perhaps those made at the prayer meeting Perry held in Texas last week?) he could as easily be another Fred Thompson. Thompson, you may recall, was the former Tennessee senator and  "Law & Order" actor who seemed, in 2008, certain to provide relief for the GOP from a weak and uninspiring field. That was until the day he started campaiging and made it clear he'd rather be doing anything but.

And in 2012, Republicans have already looked to apparently exciting unannounced candidates, only to discover them to be significantly less exciting once they actually enter the race. Some were never serious contenders — Donald Trump or Sarah Palin, for instance — but Newt Gingrich seemed ripe with potential until he turned out to be unable to build a following and alienated the party's base from day one. Jon Huntsman looked the perfect candidate on paper, but he's shown a frustrating predilection for moderation that his party has no interest in engaging with at the moment.

Rick Perry might indeed break the streak of disappointing entrants. After all, the eventual winner must join the race at some point. And nor do I want to suggest that he will be a disappointment. However, it's going to be a long race, and Perry could as easily end up a campaign footnote as he could the next president. Let's let the man begin campaigning before we declare him the frontrunner.

Tags: Election 2012, Fred Thompson, Republican Party, Republican Primary 2012, Rick Perry

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