Have you heard about the New York 23rd?

5 November 2009

It was election day yesterday. Republicans, broadly, were the winners, capturing two races for Governor, in New Jersey and Virgina. Gay rights had a mixed day, with an equal rights ballot measure in Washington passing, but Maine's gay marriage law being overturned. The most fascinating race of the day, though, was undoubtedly in New York's 23rd District, to which politicos nationwide looked as a precursor for things to come.

From early on, it was an interesting race. The special election was called after Rep. John McHugh accepted a post as Secretary of the Army. As New York State law doesn't require a primary, the Republican and Democratic parties each nominated candidates: Dede Scozzafava, a centrist Republican, and Bill Owens, a centrist Democrat.

Scozzafava was an unusual nomination- not for a New York Republicans of the Rockefeller mould, but for the current Republican Party. She was certainly a moderate, as she was broadly pro-choice and she won the support of labor groups.

One of the candidates Scozzafava beat out in the nomination process was Doug Hoffman, a more conservative Republican. He then secured the nomination of the Conservative party. Early in the race, he was polling in third place, but as election day approached, he raced ahead, to be neck-and-neck with Owens. The race suddenly gained national attention. Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Rush Limbaugh publicly endorsed Hoffman over Scozzafava. He received widespread media coverage, especially from Fox News, and the conservative blogosphere erupted with enthusiasm. Volunteers streamed into the district. 95 percent of Hoffman's financial support came from outside his district.

Then, with just two days left before the election, the third-placed Scozzafava dropped out and endorsed Owens.

Owens won the seat, the first Democrat to do so since Reconstruction, with 49.3 percent of the vote. Hoffman captured 45.2 percent, and Scozzafava, despite her withdrawal from the race, won 5.5 percent.

Beyond the peculiarities of the race itself, this one is pretty interesting in what it could tell us about the way the 2010 mid-term elections could play out. Will an energized Republican base turn out more candidates like Hoffman? Will it be more successful, especially if it occurs within the Republican Party rather than a third party? Will Democrats need to run centrists in order to compete?

Much as we try to read tea leaves, the simple fact is that the 2010 midterms are still a year away. The state of the economy (a key factor in the outcome of both Governor's races) clearly affects the way people vote. Its recovery, or lack thereof, in the coming year will likely be a crucial factor in the 2010 election, in which 39 gubernatorial positions will be filled. The recession has been felt more strongly at state-level, where most state prohibit defecits. Unless something changes dramatically, it won't be a good time to be an incumbant.

Hoffman's 45% of the vote could certainly energize what some have termed the "Tea Party" wing of the Republican Party. And the 2010 elections will undoubtedly have serious consequences for the 2012 Presidential election. Will the Republican Party nominate a centrist in the hope of winning modertates, or will they nominate a very conservative candidate, planning to energize the base and get impressive participation numbers?

With all those questions a good while away from answers, I feel confident making one prediction: the 2010 primary season will be interesting.

Tags: Congressional Election, Ny23rd