US Elections

Blogbook: February 3, 2012

By Jonathan Bradley in Sydney, Australia

3 February 2012

• Eric Holder was grilled by Congress yesterday over the growing "gunwalking" scandal.
• The Komen/Planned Parenthood furore is more complex than it appears, finds Sarah Kliff.
• A new report finds racial segregation is declining. John McWhorter dissects its findings.   
• The Gingrich campaign in Nevada is a bit of a mess, reports Amy Gardner.
• Alex Pareene explains why it's too late for a new GOP presidential candidate to enter the race.

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When values conflict

By Luke Freedman in Sydney, Australia

3 February 2012

On January 20, the White House announced that nearly all employer-provided health insurance plans must entirely cover the cost of contraceptives for women. The administration determined that only religious institutions that primarily served members of their own faith would be exempt from the law. In other words, a church would receive an exemption but a Catholic hospital would not. The requirement was widely hailed by liberals, but I have reservations about the way the Obama administration handled the decision.

(Photo: spentpenny)

Don’t get me wrong, access to birth control is an essential aspect of female autonomy. But, the administration was too quickly dismissive of another liberal value, religious freedom. The Catholic Church is officially opposed to the use of contraceptives and requiring Catholic hospitals or universities to cover the cost of birth control for their employers is to ask them to violate their teachings.

One could argue that it’s only fair that religious groups be treated like anyone else when they employ and serve Americans of all different faiths and backgrounds. However, one of the virtues of American liberalism is its willingness to try and accommodate the diverse religious beliefs and values of its citizenry. Religious liberty means not just protecting rights in the private sphere, but trying to find flexible solutions for respecting freedom of conscience in public life as well. The Church has long been a firm proponent of social justice, and Catholic hospitals and charities are now in effect being told that upholding this tenet of their religion means violating another. I’m uncomfortable asking them to make a choice between these two values.

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Bigmouth strikes again

By Jonathan Bradley in Sydney, Australia

3 February 2012

Ah, Mitt Romney. If I didn't know better, I'd think you'd done it on purpose.

No sooner had I penned my most recent American Review column, all about the GOP frontrunner's knack for spouting unfortunately memorable phrases that reinforce the growing perception Romney is a man too wealthy to be in touch with the concerns of the average American, he came out with another one.

My list of the six things Mitt Romney should never have said is out of date. In his hall of shame, he now has a seventh:

The New York Times tells the story:

But Mr. Romney’s aides cannot always bring that well-known level of discipline to one crucial aspect of the campaign: their candidate’s seemingly endless ability to utter remarks that, to the delight of his critics, sail onto political blogs, YouTube and Twitter.

On Wednesday morning in an interview with CNN, Mr. Romney said, “I’m not concerned about the very poor,” a sound bite that ricocheted around the Web and cable news channels, and which Mr. Romney felt the need to clarify with reporters as he flew to Minnesota.

For the record, here's the full quote:

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Blogbook: February 2, 2012

By Jonathan Bradley in Sydney, Australia

2 February 2012

• Nick Bryant recounts the history of declinist rhetoric from presidential candidates.
• The Mitt Romney-endorsed policy of "self-deportation" began as a joke, says Robert Mackey.
• Nate Berg lists the top five US cities for gang violence.
• Matt Yglesias on how the NFL uses trademark law to interfere with free speech.
• ?uestlove explains the social significance of recently deceased "Soul Train" host Don Cornelius.

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Blogbook: February 1, 2012

By Jonathan Bradley in Sydney, Australia

1 February 2012

• The GOP race isn't over, but the end is near, says Erick Erickson.
• Turnout was down in the Florida primary as compared to 2008, finds Nate Silver. 
• A cancer charity parts ways with Planned Parenthood. Jezebel smells anti-abortion influence. 
• Republicans won't have a problem with Romney's Mormonism, predicts Rick Perlstein. 
• Racialicious examines the subtext of the Jan Brewer/Barack Obama confrontation.

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Romney wins Florida

By Luke Freedman in Sydney, Australia

1 February 2012

Within minutes of the polls closing, all of the major networks and news organisations declared Romney the winner of the Florida primary. With the victory, Romney collects all 50 of the Florida delegates bringing his total delegate count to 84. As I argued the other day, the win leaves Romney in an excellent position going forward. Romney is now the only candidate to have won two states, and with substantial advantages in fundraising and organisation, he has clearly reclaimed the title of frontrunner.

This is a vey disappointing result for the Gingrich campaign. Evidence shows that the party elite has incredible sway in deciding the nominee, and thus Gingrich faces an enormous obstacle in that Romney is the clear favourite of the Republican establishment. Given these obstacles, Gingrich has always had a very small margin for error. Florida was a key state for him, and this loss makes an already difficult path to the nomination even more improbable.

Still, don’t expect the other candidates to drop out anytime soon. A candidate needs 1,144 delegates to clinch the Republican nomination, so Romney still has a long way to go (Gingrich has 27 delegates, Paul has 10 and Santorum has 8). The campaign now hits a bit of a lull for the next month as there are only a few primaries, all in states in which the demographics favour Romney. The next big test will come on Super Tuesday on March 6th, when 11 states hold primaries or caucuses. Several of these are Southern states in which Gingrich figures to do well. Super Tuesday is likely Gingrich’s last and best opportunity to regain momentum.

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Blogbook: January 31, 2012

By Jonathan Bradley in Sydney, Australia

31 January 2012

• Spending by outside groups on political ads is up 1600 per cent since 2008.
• Ezra Klein explains why Bill Clinton isn't polarising.
• Spencer Ackerman catalogues Newt Gingrich's zeal for military aggression.
• The Muppets vs. Fox News.
• Donovan Strain pinpoints the exact date of Ice Cube's "Good Day"

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I don't mean to brag, but...

By Jonathan Bradley in Sydney, Australia

31 January 2012

...we know our stuff here at the US Studies Centre.

This past Saturday, the Sydney Morning Herald asked four people whether politics has "finally moved beyond the personal." The evidence of this purported cultural shift? Newt Gingrich's victory in the South Carolina Republican primary, where he won over a socially conservative electorate despite his multiple marriages and reports that he'd asked an ex-wife for an open relationship.

"Politcians tax us too much, spend our money wastefully and regulate our lives," demagogued "The Libertarian," a.k.a. the Instittute of Public Affairs's James Paterson. "So why do we spend so much time worrying about their personal lives instead of the things that really matter?" Gingrich's success, he posited, was "one piece of evidence that American voters have moved beyond the personal." Voters have moved on, even if the media hasn't.

"The Feminist," Kate Gleeson pointed out, not unreasonably, that the public is more forgiving of the male and heterosexual Gingrich's indiscretions than they might be of a woman or gay man. "The Former Politician" Cheryl Kernot used the forum to urge legislators to restrict free speech by enhancing privacy laws, and and applauded one of Gingrich's self-serving attacks on the media.

Fortunately, "The Academic" — also known as the USSC's David Smith — was on hand to straighten things out:

The triumph of Newt Gingrich in South Carolina reminds us that the politics of the personal is as strategic as any other politics.

Moral outrage is not a natural phenomenon that occurs automatically in response to revelations about politicians' personal lives. It is a political weapon to be exploited or neutralised by those who best understand how to use it. No one understands better than Gingrich how outrage works in South Carolina.

America's "Red" states (conservative, Republican-voting) have higher average rates of divorce and birth out of wedlock than the supposedly more permissive "Blue" states. While conservatives insist on strict moral rules, they know they live in a morally complicated world. Everybody knows and loves people who have "fallen" at least once. Gingrich wants to appear as someone who has sinned and repented, and deserves the forgiveness everyone sometimes needs.

Moreover, he has successfully turned himself into a victim. When CNN's John King opened a debate with a question about Marianne Gingrich's claims that Newt had asked for an open marriage, he called the accusations "tawdry" and expressed outrage that the "elite media" would try to protect Barack Obama by attacking a leading Republican this way. This earned him a standing ovation; he had masterfully implied that an attack on him by his ex-wife was an attack on all conservatives by the vindictive liberal media. During the Obama presidency, Republicans have found no emotion more satisfying than victimhood.

Quite. Gingrich is a benefactor of circumstance and cultural affinity. Let us not forget that personal indiscretions recently claimed the careers of Demcoratic Congressmen Anthony Weiner and Mark Sanford, a Republican and the former governor of South Carolina. (Sanford, you may recall, went missing in the middle of 2009 when he was supposed to be hiking the Appalachian Trail. It turns out he had skipped off to Argentina to have an affair. Until then, he was expected to be competitive in this year's presidential primaries.)

After the jump, the rest of David's response.

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Blogbook: January 30, 2012

By Jonathan Bradley in Sydney, Australia

30 January 2012

• American Review's James Fallows annotates the State of the Union speech.
• Tea Partiers in Florida like Rick Santorum best of the GOP nominees, reports Alexis Levinson.
• Politico interviews Harrison Tyler, the 84 year old grandson of tenth President John Tyler.
• Ta-Nehisi Coates asks if Ron Paul is right that the Civil War could have been avoided. (Pts II and III).
• Matt Gaffney figures out the most famous celebrities according to the New York Times crossword.

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The end of the road for Gingrich?

By Luke Freedman in Sydney, Australia

30 January 2012

Five days ago Newt Gingrich held a 10 point lead in Florida and looked poised to carry his momentum from South Carolina down into the Sunshine State. Alas, five days is a lifetime when it comes to campaigns. Over the last several days, Mitt Romney has surged back ahead and now is the clear favourite to win the January 31 Florida primary.

This is obviously bad news for Gingrich, but it’s especially damaging given the campaign schedule. The four upcoming states (Nevada, Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota) were all carried by Romney in the 2008 Republican primary. If Gingrich stalls in Florida, it will be exceptionally difficult to regain momentum.

And, as the support dries up, so do the campaign contributions. Money is always important in the primary, but in the earlier, smaller states like Iowa and New Hampshire, a candidate can somewhat compensate for a lack of resources by campaigning aggressively across the state, and holding face to face meetings with voters. However, as the campaign drags on, this becomes an increasingly difficult task. The number of days between each state primary shrinks, and a number of states begin holding their elections on the same day. A candidate simply doesn’t have the time to personally visit all the counties in each state. Under these circumstances, having the resources to blanket the airwaves with advertisements is an enormous advantage.

Of course, if we’ve learned one thing during the campaign, it’s not to count out Gingrich. Every time he’s been left for dead, he’s managed to rise from the ashes in a blaze of populist rhetoric. And the creation of Super PACs means that Gingrich can potentially rely on advertising campaigns financed by wealthy individuals, even if his own direct campaign contributions begin to dry up.

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